{"id":7761,"date":"2026-06-15T08:38:36","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T11:38:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/portalmaisagro.com\/?p=7761"},"modified":"2026-06-15T08:45:49","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T11:45:49","slug":"el-nino-esta-de-volta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/portalmaisagro.com\/?p=7761","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o est\u00e1 de volta"},"content":{"rendered":"

As condi\u00e7\u00f5es do fen\u00f4meno El Ni\u00f1o j\u00e1 est\u00e3o presentes e espera-se que o fen\u00f4meno persista at\u00e9 o final do ver\u00e3o austral 2026\/2027<\/em><\/p>\n

O fen\u00f4meno El Ni\u00f1o voltou a se estabelecer no Oceano Pac\u00edfico Equatorial e deve ganhar intensidade nos pr\u00f3ximos meses, podendo alcan\u00e7ar a intensidade forte durante a primavera austral de 2026, de acordo com informa\u00e7\u00e3o oficializada pelo Centro de Previs\u00e3o Clim\u00e1tica da NOAA nesta \u00faltima quinta-feira (11).<\/p>\n

O retorno do El Ni\u00f1o tamb\u00e9m vem sendo apontado por diversos centros meteorol\u00f3gicos internacionais. Entre eles est\u00e3o a Ag\u00eancia Meteorol\u00f3gica do Jap\u00e3o (JMA), Centro Clim\u00e1tico da Coopera\u00e7\u00e3o Econ\u00f4mica \u00c1sia-Pac\u00edfico (APCC), Centro Europeu de Previs\u00f5es Meteorol\u00f3gicas de M\u00e9dio Prazo (ECMWF), o Departamento de Meteorologia da Austr\u00e1lia (BoM) e a Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o Meteorol\u00f3gica Mundial (WMO). A atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m converge com a an\u00e1lise divulgada pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) na \u00faltima ter\u00e7a-feira (9).<\/p>\n

Segundo o monitoramento, na primeira semana de junho o \u00edndice relativo Ni\u00f1o 3.4 atingiu +0,7\u00b0C, valor que caracteriza o estabelecimento das condi\u00e7\u00f5es de El Ni\u00f1o. Os \u00edndices relativos Ni\u00f1o 4, Ni\u00f1o 3 e Ni\u00f1o 1+2 registraram anomalias de +0,7\u00b0C, +1,0\u00b0C e +2,1\u00b0C, respectivamente, evidenciando o aquecimento das \u00e1guas superficiais do Oceano Pac\u00edfico Equatorial. Tais condi\u00e7\u00f5es s\u00e3o apresentadas na Figura 1.<\/p>\n

A previs\u00e3o de conjunto de multi-modelos (North American Multi-Model Ensemble \u2013 NMME) indica o fortalecimento do El Ni\u00f1o at\u00e9 o ver\u00e3o 2026-2027. Al\u00e9m disso, h\u00e1 63% de chance de um El Ni\u00f1o muito forte durante o trimestre Novembro-Dezembro-Janeiro, o que poderia classific\u00e1-lo como um dos eventos mais fortes nos registros hist\u00f3ricos desde 1950.<\/p>\n

Historicamente, epis\u00f3dios de El Ni\u00f1o est\u00e3o associados \u00e0 redu\u00e7\u00e3o das chuvas em \u00e1reas das regi\u00f5es Norte e Nordeste, aumentando o risco de estiagens, redu\u00e7\u00e3o da umidade do solo e impactos sobre os recursos h\u00eddricos. Em contrapartida, a Regi\u00e3o Sul tende a registrar precipita\u00e7\u00f5es acima da m\u00e9dia, elevando a probabilidade de eventos de chuva intensa, alagamentos e cheias de rios em algumas localidades.<\/p>\n

O INMET refor\u00e7a que mesmo epis\u00f3dios muito intensos n\u00e3o produzem necessariamente os mesmos impactos em todas as regi\u00f5es do Brasil. No entanto, quanto maior a intensidade do El Ni\u00f1o, maior tende a ser sua influ\u00eancia sobre os padr\u00f5es no sistema clim\u00e1tico do pa\u00eds, ao influenciar no comportamento da temperatura e precipita\u00e7\u00e3o, aumentando as probabilidades de ocorr\u00eancia dos impactos clim\u00e1ticos associados ao fen\u00f4meno.<\/p>\n

O INMET permanece monitorando continuamente as condi\u00e7\u00f5es observadas no Oceano Pac\u00edfico Equatorial, acompanhando a evolu\u00e7\u00e3o das anomalias de TSM e demais indicadores atmosf\u00e9ricos e oce\u00e2nicos associados ao fen\u00f4meno El Ni\u00f1o. Paralelamente, o Instituto segue avaliando as previs\u00f5es e boletins emitidos pelos principais centros meteorol\u00f3gicos internacionais especializados no monitoramento clim\u00e1tico.<\/p>\n

Texto: INMET<\/p>\n

Foto: Pexels<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Conte\u00fado exclusivo de empresas participantes do Anu\u00e1rio Brasileiro do Agroneg\u00f3cio e Agricultura Familiar – LEIA O ANU\u00c1RIO GRATUITAMENTE<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As condi\u00e7\u00f5es do fen\u00f4meno El Ni\u00f1o j\u00e1 est\u00e3o presentes e espera-se que o fen\u00f4meno persista at\u00e9 o final do ver\u00e3o austral 2026\/2027 O fen\u00f4meno El Ni\u00f1o voltou a se estabelecer no Oceano Pac\u00edfico Equatorial e deve ganhar intensidade nos pr\u00f3ximos meses, podendo alcan\u00e7ar a intensidade forte durante a primavera austral…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":7764,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[165,131],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-clima","category-destaques"],"yoast_head":"\nEl Ni\u00f1o est\u00e1 de volta - 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